How Kalshi and prediction markets are disrupting sports betting

Instead, it is picking up legal victories while continuing to allow customers to put money on their predictions in every state in the country. Moreover, the subject matter in prediction markets today is mostly limited to topics that could be bet on elsewhere. The current popular markets include politics (due to the election season), crypto, and sports. Thus, there is little incentive for people to use prediction markets as crypto exchanges and sports betting sites serve as better platforms for these activities, offering more liquidity and a better user experience. Out of the top 10 volume markets in Polymarket, the resolution dates are as below, which contrasts with sports betting, where most resolutions end in a few hours or a maximum of a week. For some markets, people don’t know when the resolution will exactly happen or if it will happen before the end date of the market.

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• These markets typically see much wider spreads (something like -120 on each side instead of -110), largely because the timeframe in which bettors can move the price is basically nonexistant – the game is already going on!
• Secondly, these are typically not 1-on-1 outcomes; there’s a whole field of potential options.11 As such, getting to “equilibrium” is a lot harder because it’s not about A vs B, it’s about A, B, C… to Z all being reasonably efficient prices.
• Both Betfair and Matchbook are known for having higher liquidity, particularly in popular sports like football, horse racing, and tennis.
• Quintenz has said he will resign from the Kalshi board and divest his stock, if confirmed.
• The flexibility of the prediction market makes more precise and targeted risk exposure possible, enabling investors to isolate risks and express their views in a variety of ways.

And this is a key reason why prediction markets struggle to attract 0DTE users, who prefer quick resolutions. IGaming Ontario is planning to release its financial reports every month instead of every quarter. The sports betting market in Ontario generated about CA$930 million in total wagers in February, which shows a 21% decline from January, constituting 13% of the market share. It also reported CA$61.5 million in gross gaming revenue, which is also a 33% drop month-over-month, constituting 22% of the market share. These decreases in revenue indicate a slowdown of the sports betting sector in Ontario after a strong start in 2025. Market movements refer to changes in the odds offered by bookmakers, which can be influenced by factors such as betting action, team news, and changing perceptions of the event.

Kalshi operates in all 50 states, whereas sports betting is only legal in 39, meaning that big-population states like Texas and California remain open frontiers in the gold rush. There is also the access to non-sports markets, including political elections and other trades Kalshi offers, like what will be the Rotten Tomatoes score for How to Train Your Dragon or who will be Time’s Person of the Year. The gaming regulatory landscape in Canada is changing rapidly, after decades of relative stagnation. With these changes come new policy challenges for regulators, such as the need to support responsible gaming, address the perceived proliferation of gaming advertising and combat illegal gaming. At the time of writing, Senate Bill S-269, which mandates the creation of a national framework for sports betting advertising, has been passed by the Senate and sent to the House of Commons for consideration.

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Self-exclusion is an important tool in allowing players to take a break from online gaming and therefore in promoting responsible gaming. Currently, each operator of a regulated iGaming site is required to offer a self-exclusion program but there is no centralized system to integrate the programs offered by all operators. The last traded price is the price at which the last bet was matched on the given selection. Often once a market has been added on BetFair, it has zero liquidity and no bets are matched, so the last traded price is null.

Check the selection’s volume percentage, i.e. its share of money compared to the total amount matched in the market. The amounts of money offered at the best prices (back and lay) of a selection is also a liquidity indicator, albeit an indirect one. If, despite being in a close succession, the prices of the selection are not supported with enough money, your bet is likely to remain unmatched. Liquidity is one of the most important factors to consider when placing lay bets in matched betting.

As a result, the exchanges can offer tighter spreads and more competitive odds to 1xbetofficialwebsite.com bettors, ultimately benefiting all users. In college football, for example, while most big college football games are pretty liquid markets, FCS games are much less commonly bet. I’ve very frequently seen markets start at -120 or -125 on Monday morning, but have those spreads shrink to -110 on Saturday around noon when it’s almost gametime.

In contrast, in low-liquidity markets, odds tend to be more volatile and less precise. Liquidity is a key factor in the sports betting industry, as it can influence the odds offered by bookmakers and ultimately your potential winnings. Liquidity is crucial for any betting exchange, as it ensures that there are enough opposing bets to facilitate efficient wagering.

Even in such cases, the cap is determined by the total liquidity in the global market, not by Cloudbet directly. Cloudbet addresses the challenge of liquidity through a proprietary engine that enables bettors to place larger bets than any single operator could handle on their own. The system dynamically executes large betting positions that exceed Cloudbet’s internal risk appetite, leveraging the depth of global market liquidity. The main liquidity indicator is the amount of money matched in the market already, i.e. its volume of money. The more money is already matched, the higher is the bettors’ interest towards this market, so the more likely it is that your own bet will be matched.

If Ontario’s centralized self-exclusion system is successfully implemented, it may very well become a model for other provinces to follow or even to participate in. Markets tend to be quieter during off-peak hours (like early mornings or weekdays), leading to lower liquidity. This could force you to adjust your strategy at the last minute or risk losing out entirely on a profitable opportunity.

Simply put, it’s the amount of money bettors are willing to place on a particular sporting event. The higher the liquidity, the higher the betting volume, and therefore, the more likely that the odds will accurately reflect the real probabilities of an outcome. Understanding the role of market liquidity in sports betting is crucial for bettors aiming to optimize their profits. Monitoring liquidity levels allows for more informed decision-making, identification of arbitrage opportunities, and securing the best odds available. Higher liquidity results in stable odds and increased betting activity, while lower liquidity may pose challenges but also offer strategic betting possibilities. It is advisable to stay informed, maintain vigilance, and approach betting with prudence to leverage market conditions effectively.

This allows them to list any new offerings, sports or otherwise, through a self-certification process without prior approval from the federal agency, which can later review products and flag them for violations. “As far as the product is concerned, we are not the house,” Sara Slane, head of corporate development at Kalshi, told ESPN. “We are simply an exchange. So we sit between people that are buying contracts on a yes and a no side. We don’t win by people losing. And we don’t lose by people winning. We simply sit in between that transaction.”